Bird flu
I have to say that reading a report where a scientist was saying that he didn't think that bird flu was a threat/much of a threat to human beings probably didn't do the viral angst I was going through at the time an awful lot of good.
Ofcourse this was just one person's view and other scientists feel differently about the threat
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article357007.ece
As I see it that facts are basically that other known pandemics have stemmed from bird flu viruses. This new(ish) threat is a very dangerous virus that is showing mutations and is now spreading. No one can possibly know just where the mutations will take the virus but it is not showing signs that they are making it less dangerous.
There is a danger that close contact with infected birds or any species that is infected with the virus will spread the virus to people. The danger of a pandemic will come when someone who contracts the virus also has a flu virus and the two viruses merge into a new flu virus that will be able to be spread through coughing and sneezing between people.
This has happened before the start of other pandemics.
If there was a lot of data to show how long and in what way the older viruses took to mutate to become a virus that was capable of starting a dangerous pandemic then there might be more room for complaceny. But even then each virus is going to go ahead with its own system of mutation.
It's true that this present bird flu virus might not become the cause of the next pandemic. There is always the possibility that it might mutate itself into something harmless or that because of the low rate of transmission at the present that the mix of it and a flu virus won't happen. The later is just down to luck. There is also the chance that the mix of flu virus and bird flu virus won't be as dangerous as feared. This is an unknown.
Complacency isn't possible in the situation as it is. It is known that the situation that there is at the present has started other pandemics off. If there is a problem the resulting flu virus will gradually become less and less virulent over time but will cause problems to start off with as it will be a new strain of flu virus that people haven't had a chance to build up immunity to.
The sensible thing to do is to prepare for what history has told us might happen.
Ofcourse this was just one person's view and other scientists feel differently about the threat
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article357007.ece
As I see it that facts are basically that other known pandemics have stemmed from bird flu viruses. This new(ish) threat is a very dangerous virus that is showing mutations and is now spreading. No one can possibly know just where the mutations will take the virus but it is not showing signs that they are making it less dangerous.
There is a danger that close contact with infected birds or any species that is infected with the virus will spread the virus to people. The danger of a pandemic will come when someone who contracts the virus also has a flu virus and the two viruses merge into a new flu virus that will be able to be spread through coughing and sneezing between people.
This has happened before the start of other pandemics.
If there was a lot of data to show how long and in what way the older viruses took to mutate to become a virus that was capable of starting a dangerous pandemic then there might be more room for complaceny. But even then each virus is going to go ahead with its own system of mutation.
It's true that this present bird flu virus might not become the cause of the next pandemic. There is always the possibility that it might mutate itself into something harmless or that because of the low rate of transmission at the present that the mix of it and a flu virus won't happen. The later is just down to luck. There is also the chance that the mix of flu virus and bird flu virus won't be as dangerous as feared. This is an unknown.
Complacency isn't possible in the situation as it is. It is known that the situation that there is at the present has started other pandemics off. If there is a problem the resulting flu virus will gradually become less and less virulent over time but will cause problems to start off with as it will be a new strain of flu virus that people haven't had a chance to build up immunity to.
The sensible thing to do is to prepare for what history has told us might happen.
posted by Zeb at 8:02 AM
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